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Expected Time to Hit Zero

Things on this page are fragmentary and immature notes/thoughts of the author. Please read with your own judgement!

Let \(DU(0, n)\) be the discrete uniform distribution on \(0\), \(1\), ..., \(n-1\). Define random variables as below.

$$X_1 \sim DU(0, n)$$
$$X_{i+1} \sim DU(0, X_{i}) \ for \ i \ge 1$$

The above process is repeated until we get a random variable with the value zero. What is the expected number of variables (i.e., time to hit zero) in this process?

Let \(T_n\) be the time needed to hit zero.

$$ \begin{align*} t_n &=E(T_n) = E\left(E(T_n|X_1)\right) \\ &= \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} \frac{1}{n} E(T_n|X_1=i) \\ &= \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} \frac{1}{n} (1 + E(T_i)) \\ &= \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} \frac{1}{n} (1 + t_i) \end{align*} $$
$$nt_n = n + \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} t_i $$
$$(n-1)t_{n-1} = (n-1) + \sum_{i=0}^{n-2} t_i $$
$$ nt_n = n + t_{n-1} + (n-1)t_{n-1} - (n-1) = nt_{n-1} + 1 $$
$$t_n - t_{n-1} = \frac{1}{n}$$
$$\sum_{i=1}^n (t_i - t_{i-1}) = \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{1}{i}$$
$$t_0 = 0$$
$$t_n = \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{1}{i}$$

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